Candidates: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) vs. former union leader Dan Osborn (I)

Ad spending since Labor Day: $13.88 million from Republicans, $18.99 million in support of Osborn

Past results: Fischer beat Democratic candidate Jane Raybould by nearly 20 percentage points.

2020 presidential result: Donald Trump beat Joe Biden 58.5 percent to 39.4 percent

Cook Political Report rating: Lean R

Some background: Fischer’s race wasn’t on many campaign experts’ radars in the larger battle for the Senate. But it has turned into one of most closely watched races in the final weeks of the 2024 campaign.

Fischer is running for her third term after winning easily in 2018, and the state’s Senate delegation has been dominated by Republicans for more than a decade. But outside money is pouring into the state to bolster Osborn, who is trying to appeal to a broad coalition of voters and has pledged he won’t caucus with either party if elected.

The state of play: There’s been a notable lack of outside polling in the race, despite sizable national attention in recent months, making it hard to get a good read on who’s actually ahead.

Fischer is describing Osborn, a registered nonpartisan voter, as a “Democrat in disguise.” Former President Donald Trump, who is expected to win most of Nebraska’s electoral college votes, recently cut an ad criticizing Osborn.

But Osborn’s internal polls have shown him constantly with a narrow lead, and Fischer has acknowledged that the race has tightened. National Republicans have stepped up their outside spending, saying they are confident Fischer will be able to hold onto her seat as they try to close the fundraising gap. Fischer’s own internal polling has her with a slight lead.

Why you should care: If Osborn pulls out a win, it has ramifications for the larger Senate map. Republicans need a net of two pickups to have an outright majority, so an Osborn win would provide an additional hurdle.

An Osborn victory could also have larger implications for how to run for federal office in a state typically dominated by one party. And Republicans know the money they are putting into Nebraska right now is miniscule compared to the amount they will have to spend in six years if Osborn wins.

The candidates: Osborn, a steamfitter and Navy veteran, has not previously run for political office. He first gained national attention for leading a strike against Kellogg’s in 2021.

Fischer has served in the Senate since 2013, and is poised to lead the Senate Rules Committee if Republicans flip the chamber. Before joining the Senate, she was a member of the Nebraska Legislature.

The issues: Fischer and Osborn won’t have a face-to-face debate before the election. (Osborn has made that an issue, including showing up at events in Nebraska with signs questioning why Fischer won’t debate him.)

Fischer, meanwhile, is putting her work in the Senate at the center of her reelection campaign, arguing that Osborn is out of step with Nebraska on issues like immigration.

Osborn has tried to avoid being boxed in with either party, instead trying to tap into a populist frustration with Washington that his supporters are hoping will allow him to flip Trump voters in the red state.

Every day POLITICO will highlight one race to watch. Yesterday’s: Nebraska’s 2nd District.